Tom Loffman's Sacramento Weather February 2010 Storm

We are now in a pleasant break between storms. The next chance of rain comes Tuesday - looks like less than .25". After that, a stronger storm is due late Thursday and Friday, although today's computer models indicate it will not be as strong as had been forecast yesterday. After that, all models bring in a strong storm starting about the 17th and continuing it for several days. Rain totals over the next couple of weeks should total about 2.00" in the Sacramento area. Snow levels will continue to dip to near, or possibly a bit below Blue Canyon during stormy periods. Tom Loffman February 7, 2010

Additional rain overnight added about .20" to our recent rain totals. The current storm is on the way out. However, expect a few showers through early tomorrow. Another storm is on the way, and should bring light rain to Sacramento on Tuesday. Beyond that, a stronger storm is due next Thursday (11th) through Saturday (13th). A break is possible from Valentines Day (14th) through the 16th. Then, yet another relatively strong storm is expected for the 17th through 19th. Over the next couple of weeks the long-range models are forecasting an average of about 2.50" of rain for our area, and of course snow in the Sierra. At Blue Canyon the snow continues to fall today, with a temperature of 33. Light snow continues at Truckee and Tahoe with temperatures hovering between 32 and 34 degrees. Over the next couple of weeks snow levels should continue to dip to near, or possibly a bit below Blue Canyon, and travel over Donner and Echo summits will be slow at times. Tom Loffman February 6, 2010

We are in a brief and nice break between storms. The next front is moving rapidly toward Northern California. Rain will fall overnight and into tomorrow. We get another break on Sunday and Monday. However, yet another storm is racing toward us, and rain should begin again late Monday. This storm is not expected to bring much more than some light rain. A stronger storm is due late next Thursday and Friday. Beyond that there is a fairly strong storm indicated for the 17th through the 20th. For a number of days the long-range computer models have been having difficulty determining the length of any breaks between storms next week. The latest models continue to call for at least a chance of showers during this period of time. However, the is no long stretch of high pressure indicated in the foreseeable future. Over the past 24 hours we have received about .50" - .75" of rain and by Sunday most areas around Sacramento will have totaled up over an inch. Over the next couple of weeks an addition two or possibly three inches of rain is expected. So, the "storm door" will remain open. Snow levels in the Sierra will continue to drop to near Blue Canyon, and over the next couple of weeks snow may fall to a bit below the 5,000 ft. level at times. However, these storms are coming from the mid-Pacific and are not typical warm El Nino storms, nor cold Polar storms, so temperatures and snow levels will remain moderate for this time of year. Tom Loffman February 5, 2010

Yet another strong Pacific storm is bringing rain to California and will be with us for a couple of days. I am expecting a break starting later Sunday. This is not a particularly cold storm so snow levels in the Sierra should stay at or above 5,000ft. Travel over the higher elevations will be difficult for the next several days, so expect slow conditions over Donner and Echo summits. After this storm ends, I will be watching another wet pattern as it moves toward California. The long-range models have been in major disagreement in recent days deciding how low the break between storms will last. Yesterday, a few models even held off the next rain until the end of next week. However, today's models don't build much high pressure between storms, and bring in the next rain again as early as Tuesday. As the models now keep the "storm door" open longer, the expected rain totals have gone up a bit. The current storm should bring us at least an inch of rain by Sunday. The following series will bring another 1.75" to possibly 4.00" of rain over a 10 day period, for a two week total of over 3.00" in the Sacramento area. There is no indication of low snow levels during this period, but the temperature will continue to be cold enough to bring snow down to Blue Canyon, and certainly over the Sierra summits. Rain totals in the Bay Area, and other areas of Northern and Northwestern California will be much higher than in Sacramento, so travel to these areas will become slow and difficult at times. Our area rivers will continue to rise as a result of the new rainfall moving in. Tom Loffman February 4, 2010

We are now in a break between storms. The next one will be fairly strong and bring at least an inch of rain to Sacramento. It will start late tomorrow and showers will continue on and off for a couple of days. Snow levels in the Sierra will fall to or just above Blue Canyon, so if you have travel plans in the mountains you need to be prepared for slow conditions and long travel times. The long-range models continue to be in disagreement on the timing of the beginning of the following series of storms. I have been saying the the models now want to bring us a long break that could last six or more days, before another wet period arrives late next week. Total rainfall over the next couple of weeks should come to about 3.00" for Sacramento. The rainy period starting about the 12th could add an additional 1.00" - 2.00" of rain. Snow levels in the Sierra are not expected to fall to low elevations during this time. Tom Loffman February 3, 2010

High pressure continues to break down opening the "storm door" slowly to the next rain event headed our way. There is a chance of occasional showers over the next couple of day, then later on Thursday the rain should increase. Friday and Saturday will be wet, but not particularly cold. Snow will fall in the Sierra with the snow level ranging from about Blue Canyon to the summit. This storm, and the storms that will follow later next week, will not pull in much cold air, so snow levels should remain at or above 5,000ft. The long-range computer models continue to disagree on the timing and strength of the series of storms that will arrive next week. Today, the models hold off these storms until later in the week and all indicate a nice break between storms lasting from several to perhaps six days. This is a much longer break than forecast yesterday. Rain totals in the Sacramento area should range from about 1.00" to 2.00" between now and Sunday. The following series of storms could bring an additional 1.00" - 2.50", for a two week total that continues to average about 3.00". The usual travel warnings continue. If you are planning on driving in the Sierra during the next couple of weeks you need to monitor the weather forecast carefully and expect difficult and slow conditions over higher elevations at times. Tom Loffman February 2, 2010

The rain will start slowly this week, then increase, as a strong storm moves in on Friday. For a week I have been expecting this one, and it will be moving in as expected. Beginning next Sunday we will have a brief break, then more storms move in the following week. Yesterday, the long-range computer models moved the stronger storms south of Sacramento and reduced our total expected rainfall over a two week period to less than 3.00". Today, however, the models bring the stronger storms back toward Northern California, so expected rain totals are up again. The range is now from over 3.00" to as high as 7.00". The lower number seems more realistic, however. These storms are not particularly cold or warm, so I am expecting snow in the Sierra, and over both Donner and Echo summits. The snow level should drop down to Blue Canyon at times. I am not expecting low elevation snow during this period. The usual travel warnings stand - if you are planning on driving in the Sierra during the next couple of weeks you need to expect difficult and slow conditions over higher elevations. Tom Loffman February 1, 2010

We made it through the weekend with two nice days. However, the next series of storms is on the way. The computer models have been having difficulty deciding when the next rain will arrive and how strong the storms will be. There is at least a chance of a few showers over the next couple of days, with a much better chance of rain starting on Wednesday or Thursday. After that, the "storm door" will be open again, and we will be receiving periods of rainfall for a couple of weeks. The latest forecast calls for a bit less rain than indicated yesterday. Yesterday the average of the long-range computer models was 3.00" of rain for Sacramento. Now, we may get a bit less than that. The usual travel warnings stand - if you have travel plans during this time period you need to plan for difficult and slow conditions over higher elevations. Tom Loffman January 31, 2010

A small storm produced .10" - .20" of rain overnight in the Sacramento area. Now, we're in a break. A string of stronger storms is on the way for next week and will bring us inches of rain and feet of snow in the Sierra. The timing and strength of these storms on the long-range computer models is in some disagreement this morning. The projected Sacramento rain totals now range from 1.60" - 5.30". The average is 3.00" for Sacramento. The difference is because one of the models moves the stronger storms more into Southern California than Northern California. These two strong storms are expected on the 3rd through the 7th, and again the 10th through the 13th. All of the models agree that we should see at least some rain on every day starting Tuesday and continuing for almost two weeks. The usual travel warnings stand - if you have travel plans during this time period you need to plan for difficult and slow conditions. Tom Loffman January 30, 2010

Here we go again! The first in a series of new storms is headed our way and should bring rain or showers to our area starting this evening. Rain totals could range from .10" to almost .50" in a few locations. The next storm in the series is moving rapidly toward us and so the break between storms is now looking short in duration. The long-range computer models have been in disagreement on the timing of the larger storms headed our way. It now appears as if the chance of at least showers will begin again either late Sunday or Monday and last for at least 10 days. The biggest storms should be arriving on the 4th-6th and again on the 10th-11th. Exact timing of these storms is not easy, so this forecast will change a bit over the next few days. We may receive an additional 3.00" - 5.00" of rain in Sacramento over this two week period of time. And, in the Sierra, this means many feet of new snow. The snow levels will be at or below 5,000ft at times, so if you have travel plans during this period make sure you are prepared for difficult conditions, particularly over Donner or Echo summits. Tom Loffman January 29, 2010

We are currently enjoying the second day of a much needed break in our stormy weather. More rain is on the way and should bring a moderate (.10" - .50") amount of precipitation to our area later tomorrow and into early Saturday. The computer models differ on the amount of rain to be expected, as usual. Next week I am expecting another week of rain to start about the 3rd and to continue for at least a week, and possibly last into the middle of February. Over that period of time we could get another 2.75" - 4.25" of rain. The long-range models indicate a couple of strong storms arriving during the period. The 5th-7th looks quite wet and stormy, so if you have travel plans at that time you should monitor the weather situation carefully. I am expecting at least several feet of new snow in the Sierra. Snow levels should range from about 5,000ft to 7,000ft, and travel conditions over both Donner and Echo summits will be slow and difficult at times. Tom Loffman January 28, 2010