Let's be honest, NHC's tracks have not been the best this year. It appears that they always make a track forecast towards the path of least regret. For example, initial tracks in the Gulf this year tended towards New Orleans initially (that was especially true for Earl). If a forecaster wants to go out on their own and show their own track, I think they have every right to. But, they better be ready to deal with the responsibility that goes along with it, and that is a big responsibility if they are wrong.

A few thoughts for those of you who do come up with your own tracks:

1) Do you see the ensemble of track models that NHC does? I sure wouldn't want to make a track forecast without seeing all those, AND knowing what the bias/tendencies of those models are.

2) Do you get to talk to the hurricane hunters while they are in the storms? NHC does and get a lot more information than we ever see in their vortex messages.

3) Do you have the collective experience they do?

One other thought:

Those of you who want to display your own tracks, do you want to come up with your own tornado watch boxes when you don't agree with SPC? Where do we draw the line?

Jamie Simpson
Meteorologist, The Weather Channel